The market features an indicator called the ‘Fear & Greed Index,’ which quantifies the public’s psychological state. While greed tends to grow during bull markets and fear dominates during bear markets, this index, though not an absolute standard, greatly helps gauge the overall current market sentiment.

Bitcoin has recently crossed the 80 million won mark before dipping slightly again. There was also news that a Bitcoin spot ETF product launched on the US stock market, recording a trading volume of 1 trillion dollars (approximately 1,300 trillion won) on its first day alone. Hearing such news triggers FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out)—the fear of missing out on opportunities—and greed for greater profits. This causes indicators to surge sharply, prompting the public to rush into additional purchases. At this point, institutional traders realize their profits by selling, waiting for the next ‘scare news’. When negative news floods in—such as a plunge of several percent in a single day, China’s cryptocurrency ban, or concerns over U.S. interest rate hikes—the public falls back into fear. Ultimately, those who bought assets at high prices, gripped by fear, sell their assets at rock-bottom prices, and institutional traders scoop up that volume again (“picking up bargains” at the bottom).

This is a pattern that has repeated throughout history. Yet, despite knowing this, we fall into the trap every time because we trade driven by our emotions. I, too, find myself caught in an emotional whirlwind, agonizing over buy and sell timing, constantly questioning whether my decisions are correct. The famous stock market sayings, “Buy on rumor, sell on news” and “Buy at the bottom, sell at the top,” ultimately encapsulate this psychological structure in a single phrase. Of course, the strategy that transcends all this is the so-called ‘HODL’. As former CEO John Lee mentioned, it’s akin to “buying stocks, taking sleeping pills, and going to sleep.” Watching a video by a professional trader I subscribe to, I found an interview with a reporter from the cryptocurrency media outlet ‘CoinTelegraph’ particularly interesting. The view was that the launch of ETF financial products on Wall Street is typically a ‘warning sign’. While the market perceives ETF launches as positive news and pours in investment funds, the reality is that it signals speculative capital has peaked in that sector and could be a precursor to an imminent price crash. Whose words to trust is a personal judgment, but it was an uncomfortable truth of the investment market that cannot be lightly dismissed.

In December 2021, the cryptocurrency market plummeted over 20% on a day dubbed ‘Black Saturday,’ with Bitcoin falling below 60 million won. Market sentiment naturally leaned toward fear, fueled by the spread of the Omicron variant, the bankruptcy crisis of China’s Evergrande Group, inflation concerns, and interest rate hikes – a veritable ‘comprehensive gift set of fear.’ However, for prepared investors, this may have presented a favorable opportunity to buy at a low point. It reaffirmed the fundamental principle of investing: starting small to understand the market flow and managing risk through dollar-cost averaging. Then, in May 2022, an unprecedented event occurred: Luna (LUNA) coin, then ranked in the top 10 by market cap, plummeted 95% in a single day. The vulnerability of its structure, linked to the stablecoin Terra (UST), was exposed, severely damaging the market’s overall trust. Following the consecutive Nasdaq crash, the shocking inflation rate announcement, and the Fed’s giant step (a 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike), Bitcoin plummeted to around 25 million won.

Nearly 99% of retail investors worldwide likely suffered losses. I too endured a painful experience: after multiple margin calls due to leveraged investments in Celsius Wallet attempted at the peak, my Ethereum collateral was ultimately liquidated. Yet, I still wake up at 4:30 AM today to monitor the Fear and Greed Index and continue investing. I believe that continuing despite the fear is the only path to becoming part of the surviving 1%.